Wednesday, March 1, 2017

Cynefin Framework and Decision Making

The Cynefin Framework is a tool designed to help a person start to sort complexity theory into an overall decision making process and it looks like this though sometimes the labels are slightly different for each quadrant (Unknown for Complicated and Known for Best Practice):




At first glance this isn't overly helpful but once you start to sort incoming information or lack of information into one of these sectors you can start to see the relationship between the quadrants. Each quadrant can also help in decision making.


Complex: Here is where many things cannot be immediately determined. Negotiations related to a sales pitch or a contract may start here. A car buyer may not know all the faults of a model or in business an agent may not understand the motives of those with whom the agent is negotiating. Meeting new friends can even start here. Understanding that many variables are dark means that a person can begin to lessen anxiety over said variables and try to move them into the best practice or "Simple" quadrant. Complex is the normal starting point for most any relationship or decision. Here one needs to seek information and begin to understand relationships.


Complicated: Here the causes and effects are separated over time. Things here may not always be straightforward but they can understood with investigation. Part of this quadrant is related to Complex as when things in Complex are being sorted out they can be moved into Complicated (or even other quadrants as we will see). Here people can respond based on knowledge and factual information. Of course all actions based on information are only as good as the information itself so this area is still not the best for decision making. I see this area a great deal with established patients. While they may not be telling us everything we generally know enough to make reasoned responses. I would think long term business relationships can exist here, especially between competitors. Coca-Cola and Pepsi may be fierce in regards to competition but they also understand one another.


Simple: This is where all variables are known and cause and effect is obvious to all involved. Interpersonal relationships may not always be in this quadrant as people are not always logical creatures though I think they can rent space in it for some time. This isn't a bad thing but more a reflection on the complexity of the human nature. However, some things are much more simple. When dealing with accurate information a manager can see a clear cause and effect with some actions. Engineers can "do the math" and see how something can play out when building a structure. Knowing to pay debts and when payments are due to your company are all examples of simple areas where decision making can be straightforward. Pilots understand the physics that keep them aloft and know that control inputs will result in a planned change in the aircraft.  However, keep in mind that the saying "there are exceptions to every rule" means that even simple things may not stay that way for long. Simple is great so long as everything is working and the concepts involved aren't vague themselves.


Chaotic: It can be easy to confuse chaotic with complex but with chaos the agent tends to act first and then see how things play out rather than seek information first. With me this area occurs with crisis situations when patients either go missing or act out in dangerous ways. Some police and military interventions may be chaotic and with drastic and unfortunate consequences. Thankfully, in the business world this quadrant may emerge in times of stumbling stock prices or a breach of safety has occurred. I've seen meetings where people let their emotions take over and things head into this quadrant for a short period. However from chaos emerges order. Complexity theory in leadership is dependent on that order emerging. Less dramatic areas where chaos is useful would be in brainstorming sessions or research and development.


What is apparent when studying this framework is that things can move between quadrants or hover over the line of quadrants. While it might be great to have everything in the Simple category there is a danger in removing all ambiguity. Removing all ambiguity can remove possible options. Allowing ideas to move into complexity or even chaotic can generate possible outcomes that may not have been there if a desire to move in the Simple quadrant was so strong it drowned out information. All in all the framework is a handy tool to remind managers and leaders that these states exist and have relationships with one another.

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